The second WeLaR foresight workshop brought together policymakers, researchers, and social partners to discuss policy responses to the potential negative impacts of technological change, climate policies, and globalisation on European labour markets and welfare systems.
Held in Vienna on 18 March 2025, the workshop built on the scenarios developed in the first workshop and formulated policy recommendations for EU labour market and welfare state reforms. The four scenarios present different future trajectories, based on varying paces of technological change and levels of climate policy stringency and international coordination.
The workshop opened with a policy panel facilitated by Dalila Ghailani and Sebastiano Sabato (OSE). Panelists representing EU and national institutions, social partners and NGOs shared their views on the most promising courses of action to promote sustainable and inclusive growth and on initiatives that the EU could take to support Member States. The discussion highlighted matters including the importance of education and training and the need to consider access to childcare and elder care as a cross-cutting issue.
The policy panel was followed by a presentation from Mikkel Barslund and Laurène Thil (HIVA – KU Leuven) who discussed findings from the first WeLaR Delphi survey. The survey gathered expert assessments on the likelihood of various scenarios, their labour market and welfare state implications, and the demographic groups most at risk.
Experts indicated that the most plausible scenario (85.5%) is the one characterised by rapid but uneven technological growth, weak climate policies, and declining global cooperation. This scenario is expected to lead to job polarisation, rising income inequality, strained welfare systems, and widening regional disparities.
The remaining three scenarios assumed:
A.: A world shaped by rapid technological progress and strict climate policies, supported by strong global cooperation. This environment fosters innovation but faces challenges such as tensions, mismatches, and uneven progress.
B.: A world where technological innovation flourishes locally, yet limited climate action and reduced global connectivity create obstacles to achieving broader sustainability goals and
C.: A world where strict climate rules and global cooperation face challenges from slow technological progress.
Ursula Holtgrewe (ZSI) and Michaela Bruckmayer (ZSI) set the stage for the afternoon, when participants worked in groups to further develop policy recommendations and explore policy synergies for each scenario, which will be tested for their plausibility and potential to achieve their goals in a second round of the Delphi survey.
