Researchers, policymakers, and WeLaR stakeholders met in Brussels last week to examine how technological progress and climate policies might evolve and their implications for European labour markets and welfare systems.
At the foresight workshop “Exploring the long-term impacts of megatrends on European labour markets and welfare systems, organised by WeLaR partners HIVA KU Leuven, OSE and ZSI on 28 November, 2024 in Brussels, participants discussed three scenarios, using a matrix framed around two key uncertainties: technological progress (fast vs. slow) and climate policy stringency (mild vs. strict).
“Foresight exercises like this are invaluable tools. They open our perspectives, encourage mental plasticity, and challenge us to think beyond linear trajectories,” wrote Manuel Paolillo, Director General of Policy Coordination and International Relations, Belgian Ministry of Social Security, in a LinkedIn post. “As I’ve written previously (The Art of Foresight – Like a Jedi Knight), scenario planning allows us to prepare for multiple possible futures. It equips us with the adaptability needed to address uncertainties and shape resilient strategies, going beyond predictive analysis.”
We explored three potential future scenarios:
Scenario 1: A world shaped by rapid technological progress and strict climate policies, supported by strong global cooperation. This environment fosters innovation but faces challenges such as tensions, mismatches, and uneven progress.
Scenario 2: A world where technological innovation flourishes locally, yet limited climate action and reduced global connectivity create obstacles to achieving broader sustainability goals.
Scenario 3: A world marked by slow technological growth, mild climate policies, and localised economies, resulting in stagnation and minimal overall progress.
These scenarios highlight diverse challenges and opportunities, providing a valuable framework to anticipate future trajectories and develop adaptive strategies.
Our next steps include a Delphi survey to validate and refine the scenarios and a second workshop, planned for March 18 2025 in Vienna, hosted by ZSI, where the survey results will be discussed to develop policy recommendations for adapting welfare systems to promote resilience and inclusive growth.
