On 26 June 2025, the WeLaR webinar “Anticipating the future: Foresight approaches for labour markets and welfare in Europe” brought together 25 researchers, policymakers, and foresight experts to explore how scenario-based thinking can guide long-term strategies in European labour markets and welfare systems. The interactive session, attended by participants from across Europe, presented key insights from the WeLaR foresight exercise and highlighted how anticipatory approaches can help shape more resilient, inclusive, and future-ready policies.
Laurène Thil (HIVA – KU Leuven) opened the event with an overview of the WeLaR foresight exercise, which unfolded in four stages: a scenario workshop in Brussels, a Delphi-style survey involving 72 experts, a policy co-creation workshop in Vienna, and a second Delphi round currently underway. The process resulted in four future scenarios for the EU in 2040, presenting different future trajectories, based on varying paces of technological change and levels of climate policy stringency and international coordination. The second survey, running until mid-July, will assess the feasibility and impact of the eight policy recommendations developed during workshops. The final WeLaR foresight report, detailing all scenarios, outcomes, and policy insights, is expected by the end of August. See the presentation here.
Dexter Docherty (OECD Strategic Foresight Unit) shared tools and principles from the OECD’s Strategic Foresight Toolkit, stressing the value of exploring alternative futures and stress-testing policy choices. He outlined how governments can embed foresight in institutions to anticipate disruption and design adaptable strategies. His presentation highlighted the importance of fostering independence, high-level political support, and diverse expertise within foresight ecosystems. See the presentation here.
Bart Los (University of Groningen) presented findings from quantitative research analysing the impact of globalisation, technological change, and migration on consumption. Using input-output modelling and linear programming, the study assessed eight scenario combinations. The results showed that technological change plays the most crucial role in determining consumption. The study feeds into the Horizon 2020 GI-NI project focused on inequality in a globalised economy. See the presentation here.
Rafael Peels (International Labour Organization) contributed a perspective on how trade unions use foresight to adapt to a changing world of work. Drawing on ILO experiences across Africa, Asia, and Eastern Europe, Peels described a cycle of horizon scanning, scenario development, and organisational change. He underscored that foresight should allign with trade union principles by promoting participation, democracy, and long-term vision, and called for greater investment in local capacity building and political buy-in. See the presentation here.
Joanna Hofman (RAND Europe) brought attention to gender equality in foresight. Her analysis of 33 EU foresight evaluations (2020–2022) revealed major gaps in integrating gender and intersectionality. Hofman advocated for applying gender mainstreaming tools, building diverse teams, and addressing challenges such as the gender pension gap and biases in labour markets. She urged participants to see inclusive foresight as a lever for fairness and social justice in future policy. See the presentation here.
