A new article by Piotr Lewandowski and Wojciech Szymczak from the Institute for Structural Research (IBS), based on research carried out within the WeLaR project, has been published in Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society. The study examines how different automation technologies affect atypical employment across 13 EU countries from 2006 to 2018.

The authors find that while industrial robots do not reduce overall employment, they increase involuntary atypical employment, particularly through fixed-term contracts. They also show that strong trade unions can mitigate the negative effects of automation on job quality, whereas employment protection legislation plays a minimal role.

The paper also finds that investments in software and databases increase employment and have no effect on atypical work.

Europe’s governments must act decisively to prevent deeper inequality and wider labour-market mismatches as climate change and digitalisation upend markets and welfare systems over the next two decades, threatening social cohesion and long-term competitiveness, a new foresight study by Project WeLaR shows.

The study, “Foresight on the long-term impacts of megatrends on labour markets and welfare states,” outlines four scenarios for Europe’s future, each shaped by different mixes of globalisation, climate ambition and technological change. In each case, the green and digital transitions stand out as drivers that are reshaping economies, societies and the distribution of opportunities.

“Climate action and digitalisation are structural drivers that will not disappear,” said Laurène Thil, researcher at the Research Institute for Work and Society (HIVA) at Belgian university KU Leuven, and a co-author of the study. “The question is whether Europe will manage these transitions to create opportunity for all, or allow inequalities to deepen.”

Four plausible futures

WeLaR researchers developed the four contrasting futures through an inclusive foresight process that combined two participatory workshops and two Delphi surveys. Policy-makers, representatives of trade unions and NGOs, government officials and academics worked together to create the scenarios, bringing their diverse perspectives on how Europe’s labour markets and welfare systems could evolve – with outcomes ranging from a highly connected, climate-focused and innovation-driven continent to a more fragmented, slower-growing one with limited technological progress.

In the most dynamic scenario, large numbers of jobs could be created in renewable energy, advanced manufacturing and digital services. However, structural unemployment and skills mismatches are likely unless governments implement effective reskilling and labour mobility policies.

In slower innovation scenarios, the challenge shifts: low-quality, insecure work persists, with fewer opportunities for workers to move up the skills ladder. Regional disparities widen as dynamic urban hubs attract investment, while rural and post-industrial regions are left behind. 

Cohesion under strain 

The report shows that without targeted intervention, inequality between regions, skills groups and generations is likely to intensify under most scenarios. This could undermine social cohesion and fuel political resistance to climate and digital policies.

Europe’s welfare systems, designed for an era of stable, full-time work, are ill-equipped for future labour markets, the report finds. Education and training systems face similar challenges. The study identifies skills mismatches as one of the most pressing risks across all scenarios. Whether technological change is fast or slow, education systems need long-term curriculum reform, closer links with industry and strong lifelong learning opportunities to ensure that large groups of workers are not left behind.

The study highlights structural governance barriers that cut across every scenario. With responsibilities split between EU, national and regional authorities, coordination too often remains weak. Political and budgetary cycles reward short-term fixes, even as decarbonisation and technological change require decades-long commitments. Capacity gaps between administrations persist, and policy silos make it difficult to align labour, welfare, climate and industrial strategies within a single coherent agenda.

Policy priorities

Despite the differences between the scenarios, the study identifies five policy priorities that are relevant in all futures: boosting labour market adaptability through reskilling and mobility; reforming welfare systems to provide more inclusive protection; overhauling education and skills systems; strengthening governance coordination across different levels; and aligning climate, economic and social goals to maximise synergies. 

“Even under very different futures, some priorities never change: skills reform, inclusive welfare provision and stronger coordination are always needed,” Sebastiano Sabato, researcher at the European Social Observatory (OSE) and co-author of the study.

The authors argue that acting on these “no-regrets” strategies will help Europe navigate uncertainty, maintain competitiveness and strengthen social cohesion.

Read the report here.

Foresight report on the long-term impacts of megatrends on labour markets and welfare states. Laurène Thil, Karolien Lenaerts, Mikkel Barslund, Allison Dunne, Ursula Holtgrewe, Michaela Bruckmayer, Ramón Peña-Casas, Sebastiano Sabato, Dalila Ghailani, Slavina Spasova (2025). Deliverable D7.5. Leuven: WeLaR project 101061388 – HORIZON.

 

While most Europeans express strong support for government action to reduce income inequality, their voting choices don’t always align with these preferences, a new study WeLaR study shows. Cultural values and attitudes toward immigration significantly affect whether pro-redistribution views lead voters to support parties that actually promote redistributive policies.

The report, “Preferences for Redistribution and Demand for Redistributive Policies in Europe,” draws on data from the European Social Survey (ESS), combined with party-level data from the Chapel Hill Expert Survey (CHES). It examines who supports redistribution, how these preferences have evolved over time and during crises, and to what extent they are reflected in voting behaviour across EU member states and candidate countries.

The analysis reveals that backing for redistribution rose after the 2008 financial crisis but declined in many countries following the COVID-19 pandemic. The extensive support measures implemented during the pandemic may have reduced perceived inequality and lessened the urgency of further redistribution.

“Public support for redistribution in Europe is widespread, but it’s not uniform,” said Cristiano Perugini, Professor of Public Economics at the University of Perugia and a co-author of the study.

The WeLaR research finds a strong, positive association between individual preferences for redistribution and voting for left-leaning parties. This association is stronger for people with higher incomes, positive views of immigrants, strong trust in political institutions, and liberal attitudes.

In contrast, conservative voters and those with anti-immigration attitudes often express support for redistribution yet vote for right-leaning parties that do not advocate such policies.

“Our findings show that support for redistribution is moderated by how people perceive other social issues,” said Marko Vladisavljević, Assistant Professor at the University of Belgrade and co-author of the report. “Redistribution is important for voters, but it’s only one of several competing issues that influence political choices.”

The report also confirms a well-established link between inequality and demand for redistribution in a large sample of countries and time periods which encompasses two economic crises: countries with higher levels of income inequality tend to have stronger public preferences for redistribution. Inequality can also act as a signal for individuals with high incomes, low altruism, and conservative values to adjust their views on inequality and redistribution.

The authors recommend promoting civic education to help voters align their values with policy choices, enhancing the transparency and responsiveness of welfare institutions, and designing redistributive measures perceived as fair and effective.

“Redistribution is not just an economic issue: it’s political, cultural, and deeply connected to trust,” said Perugini.

Cristiano Perugini and Marko Vladisavljević (2025) Preferences for redistribution and demand for redistributive policies in Europe (Deliverable D7.2). Leuven: WeLaR project 101061388 – HORIZON.

The paper is available here.

 

 

Many platform workers in Europe who want greater job security through benefits like paid leave and sick pay are unwilling to give up more than a small fraction of their income to get them, new research from the EU-funded Project WeLaR found.

The paper, “New Forms of Work and Workers’ Demand for Security and Stability”, analysed how workers in the platform economy value job protections that are typically offered in standard employment. Using survey experiments in Poland, Italy, Germany, and Belgium, the researchers estimated how much earnings workers are willing to forgo in exchange for paid leave or sick pay. While preferences varied by country and by workers’ personal circumstances, on average, respondents would give up just 2.15% of income for paid leave and 1% for sick pay.

The findings suggest a complex reality for policymakers navigating platform work regulation. As the EU moves toward implementing a directive on platform workers’ rights, the authors warn that a one-size-fits-all approach may face pushback from workers who prioritise flexibility or cannot afford social security contributions.

“These findings challenge the idea that gig workers universally seek traditional employment protections,” said Piotr Lewandowski, chairman of the Institute for Structural Research and co-author of the study. “There’s a clear divide. Some workers choose platform jobs for flexibility and don’t want benefits at the cost of lower pay, while others, especially those with fewer job options, are more willing to trade income for stability.”

The study surveyed nearly 800 platform workers, including food couriers, ride-hailing drivers, and domestic cleaners. Italian and Belgian workers valued paid leave the most, with average willingness-to-pay above 5% of income. That compared with just 1% in Poland and under 1% in Germany. Willingness to give up earnings in exchange for sick pay was more uniform, though still low across the board.

Employees who entered platform work out of necessity, due to job loss or lack of alternatives, were far more willing to give up earnings for benefits, especially sick pay. In contrast, workers drawn by flexibility were more likely to prioritise paid leave. Self-employed platform workers showed little interest in paying for benefits, while employees were willing to forgo nearly 3% of their pay for paid leave.

“Time preference matters,” said Laurène Thil of HIVA – KU Leuven, another study co-author. “Employees, who favour immediate income over future gains, are paradoxically more willing to pay for protections like paid leave. They may be more aware of the risks they face in precarious jobs.”

Surprisingly, risk aversion had little effect on how workers valued benefits – contrary to economic theory that predicts risk-averse individuals would pay more for security.

The authors call for nuanced policies that distinguish between workers using platforms as a primary income source and those who use them casually. Without adequate safeguards, they warn, the platform economy may continue to expose large segments of the workforce to high levels of precarity.

“Just because workers don’t want to pay doesn’t mean benefits aren’t needed,” said Jakob Schmidhäuser, co-author of the report and the researcher at ZEW – Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research. “Low willingness-to-pay reflects low earnings, not low demand. Policymakers must recognise that some workers are unable – not unwilling – to invest in protections.”

Zuzanna Kowalik, Piotr Lewandowski, Fabrizio Pompei, Jakob Schmidhäuser, Wojciech Szymczak, Laurène Thil (2025). New Forms of Work and Workers’ Demand for Security and Stability (Deliverable D7.3). Leuven: WeLaR project 101061388 – HORIZON.

Read the full paper here.

 

Europe needs far-reaching reforms of labour market, tax, and education policies to ensure that its workforce and welfare states remain resilient in the face of accelerating digital, green, and demographic transitions, according to a new report from the EU-funded Project WeLaR.

The report, “Building resilient and inclusive labour markets in Europe: unpacking policy synergies and challenges”, calls for a New European Social Pact that reconnects economic policy with social justice, democratic legitimacy, and inclusive prosperity. Outlining a comprehensive vision for preparing the European workforce for the future, the researchers argue that the scale and pace of change require more than policy fine-tuning. Instead, they call for a shift in perspective: labour market and social policy must be seen as strategic investments, not as costs.

“We are witnessing the slow-motion disruption of the European Social Model,” said Ramón Peña-Casas, Director of Research at the European Social Observatory (OSE) and co-author of the report. “Digital technologies are redefining the workplace, climate policy is restructuring entire sectors, and demographic ageing is straining the very foundation of our welfare systems. It’s no longer a question of whether change is coming: it’s here, and the institutions that held the post-war model together do not have the tools to navigate these changes.”

These changes should come with a political and institutional commitment to redefine the European social model to reaffirm the centrality of social rights, empower local actors, and build legitimacy for far-reaching reforms. These must be forward-looking, aligning labour market policies with ecological goals, technological innovation, and demographic realities, the researchers say.

The study offers a wide-ranging set of policy recommendations. It urges governments to focus on creating inclusive labour markets where job quality is treated as a central policy objective. The report calls for action to reduce in-work poverty, close gender and ethnic gaps, and address growing precarity, especially in sectors most exposed to automation or green restructuring. Current trends in non-standard work, especially in the platform economy, highlight the need for social protection systems that are not tied to traditional forms of employment.

Another major theme of the report is the urgent need to invest in skills. While much has been said about lifelong learning and the digital divide, the report highlights a persistent gap in access to training for low-skilled, older, and migrant workers. The study emphasises that skilling initiatives must be tailored, accessible, and supported by structural measures such as paid training leave, individual learning accounts, and recognition of prior learning.

“Lifelong learning must move from aspiration to infrastructure,” said co-author Dalila Ghailani and senior researcher at OSE. “That means embedding it into the fabric of work and welfare systems, not treating it as a luxury.”

Territorial inequalities receive special attention in the report, which argues that regional disparities, often rooted in deindustrialisation, depopulation, or weak infrastructure, could be further exacerbated by the green and digital transitions. The study calls for more ambitious place-based policies, including targeted use of EU cohesion funds, support for local social economy actors, and stronger coordination between national and subnational levels of government. These territorial strategies must focus not only on economic recovery but also on social infrastructure and community resilience.

The report makes a case for reimagining public services as foundational to labour market participation. Access to quality childcare, eldercare, education, healthcare, and housing are described not just as social goods, but as essential conditions for people to participate in work, training, and society. These services, the authors argue, should be publicly funded, universally accessible, and embedded in local contexts to respond to communities’ specific needs.

Financing all of these measures requires a fundamental shift in fiscal thinking. The report argues that current fiscal rules and budget constraints often discourage precisely the kind of investments needed for long-term resilience. It recommends treating spending on skills, care, and inclusion as growth-enhancing investments, to be protected and expanded in EU fiscal frameworks. Redistribution mechanisms, including progressive taxation, green transition taxes, and the elimination of loopholes, are essential tools to fund inclusive policies and sustain public trust.

Democratic legitimacy is a final, cross-cutting theme of the report. Social dialogue, collective bargaining, and civil society engagement are presented not as optional features but as prerequisites for successful reform. The study argues that the complexity and potential divisiveness of the twin transitions demand participatory policymaking and shared ownership. In particular, it warns of the risks posed by algorithmic management, surveillance technologies, and AI systems in the workplace. Ensuring transparency, accountability, and worker voice in these areas will be crucial to maintaining fairness and social cohesion.

“Europe is at a crossroads: we can either manage these transitions with fairness, or risk social fragmentation,” said co-author Sebastiano Sabato and senior researcher at OSE. “The choices we make now will define the kind of society we become.”

Ramón Peña-Casas, Dalila Ghailani, and Sebastiano Sabato (2025) Building resilient and inclusive labour markets in Europe: unpacking policy synergies and challenges. Deliverable D7.1. WeLaR project 101061388 – HORIZON.

You can read the Report here

On 4 July 2025, the final edition of the WeLaR Virtual Expert Café brought together researchers from across Europe to reflect on how today’s complex crises – ranging from climate change and war to democratic backsliding and de-globalisation – are challenging the foundations of socio-economic research and policy. The online session served as an open forum for discussion, sharing insights, and cross-project learning. 

Ursula Holtgrewe (Center for Social Innovation) opened the session by examining how the global and European research context has shifted since WeLaR began. She argued that today’s “polycrisis” has upended earlier assumptions about change, evidence, and impact. Holtgrewe called on researchers to critically reassess their role and resist the lure of “magical thinking” – the belief that producing sound policy recommendations automatically translates into societal change. Instead, she encouraged a more nuanced, reflective approach that acknowledges institutional inertia, political backlash, and epistemic limitations, while still holding space for vision and responsibility. See the presentation here. 

Holger Stichnoth (Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research – ZEW) shared new findings from a microsimulation study analysing the tax and transfer impacts of Germany’s right-wing populist AfD party. His research revealed that AfD’s policy proposals would primarily benefit high earners, while offering little to low-income groups—despite the party’s strong support among working-class and unemployed voters. Stichnoth highlighted the growing disconnect between voter perceptions and economic policy outcomes, and raised important questions about how political identity and narratives around migration may shape electoral choices more than material self-interest. The presentation is available here. 

Karolien Lenaerts (HIVA – KU Leuven) presented insights from the BRIDGES 5.0 project, which explores the emerging paradigm of Industry 5.0. Drawing on outcomes from a recent multi-stakeholder conference, she underlined the need to involve workers more actively in shaping industrial transitions and to support small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in aligning business priorities with social goals. She also emphasised the importance of translating high-level concepts into actionable guidance and practice. See the presentation here. 

Following the presentations, participants engaged in a lively discussion. Topics included the role of far-right parties in redefining economic narratives, how migration influences political dynamics, and continuing gender equality challenges.  

On 26 June 2025, the WeLaR webinar “Anticipating the future: Foresight approaches for labour markets and welfare in Europe” brought together 25 researchers, policymakers, and foresight experts to explore how scenario-based thinking can guide long-term strategies in European labour markets and welfare systems. The interactive session, attended by participants from across Europe, presented key insights from the WeLaR foresight exercise and highlighted how anticipatory approaches can help shape more resilient, inclusive, and future-ready policies.

Laurène Thil (HIVA – KU Leuven) opened the event with an overview of the WeLaR foresight exercise, which unfolded in four stages: a scenario workshop in Brussels, a Delphi-style survey involving 72 experts, a policy co-creation workshop in Vienna, and a second Delphi round currently underway. The process resulted in four future scenarios for the EU in 2040, presenting different future trajectories, based on varying paces of technological change and levels of climate policy stringency and international coordination. The second survey, running until mid-July, will assess the feasibility and impact of the eight policy recommendations developed during workshops. The final WeLaR foresight report, detailing all scenarios, outcomes, and policy insights, is expected by the end of August. See the presentation here.

Dexter Docherty (OECD Strategic Foresight Unit) shared tools and principles from the OECD’s Strategic Foresight Toolkit, stressing the value of exploring alternative futures and stress-testing policy choices. He outlined how governments can embed foresight in institutions to anticipate disruption and design adaptable strategies. His presentation highlighted the importance of fostering independence, high-level political support, and diverse expertise within foresight ecosystems. See the presentation here.

Bart Los (University of Groningen) presented findings from quantitative research analysing the impact of globalisation, technological change, and migration on consumption. Using input-output modelling and linear programming, the study assessed eight scenario combinations. The results showed that technological change plays the most crucial role in determining consumption. The study feeds into the Horizon 2020 GI-NI project focused on inequality in a globalised economy. See the presentation here.

Rafael Peels (International Labour Organization) contributed a perspective on how trade unions use foresight to adapt to a changing world of work. Drawing on ILO experiences across Africa, Asia, and Eastern Europe, Peels described a cycle of horizon scanning, scenario development, and organisational change. He underscored that foresight should allign with trade union principles by promoting participation, democracy, and long-term vision, and called for greater investment in local capacity building and political buy-in. See the presentation here.

Joanna Hofman (RAND Europe) brought attention to gender equality in foresight. Her analysis of 33 EU foresight evaluations (2020–2022) revealed major gaps in integrating gender and intersectionality. Hofman advocated for applying gender mainstreaming tools, building diverse teams, and addressing challenges such as the gender pension gap and biases in labour markets. She urged participants to see inclusive foresight as a lever for fairness and social justice in future policy. See the presentation here.

The final edition of WeLaR’s Open Virtual Expert Café “Polycrisis, Zeitenwende, De-Globalisation, changing policy priorities: How did the world change in recent years, and what does it mean for our research on societies and economies?” will take place on 4 July 2025 from 13:00 to 15:00 CET.

If you want to take part in the event or present your take on the topic, please email Michaela Bruckmayer (bruckmayer@zsi.at).

The event will provide a space to share reflections, early-stage ideas, or new research findings. Holger Stichnoth (ZSI) will present his new work on right-wing economic policies, and Laurène Thil and Karolien Lenearts will talk about findings from the project BRIDGES 5.0.

We look forward to your participation in what promises to be another engaging and fruitful session!

The WeLaR foresight webinar, “Anticipating the future: Foresight approaches for labour markets and welfare in Europe,” will take place on 26 June 2025, online from 14:00 to 16:00 CET.

Join us for an interactive session exploring the role of foresight in preparing labour markets and welfare systems for long-term transitions. The event will present key findings from the WeLaR foresight exercise and offer insights into forward-looking policymaking and scenario development.

Speakers include Laurène Thil (HIVA – KU Leuven), Rafael Peels (ILO), Prof. Dr. Bart Los (University of Groningen), Dexter Docherty (OECD), Joanna Hofman (RAND Europe), and Michaela Bruckmayer (ZSI).

The full programme is available here

Register here: https://hiva.kuleuven.be/en/calendar/forms/welarwebinar26062025

 

On 24 June 2025, the WeLaR team met with its Advisory Board members, Marco Pianta, Andrew Clark, Agnieszka Chłoń-Domińczak, and Christoph T. Weiss.

During the meeting, WeLaR researchers presented key findings from their ongoing work and received feedback and suggestions. The exchange offered a constructive opportunity to reflect on project progress and plan out the final months of the project.

To kick off the meeting, Marko Vladisavljević presented research on Europeans’ preferences for redistribution and demand for redistributive policies. His team sought to link these views to voting behaviour and the positions of European political parties, an area that remains under-investigated. Using data from 31 countries from 2002-23, the researchers attempted to examine the preference for redistribution (PFR) in the context of inequality and personal values. In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis and the fiscal austerity it inspired, there was an increase in PFR; the response to Covid, which featured strong redistribution in many countries, was followed by a decrease. The study found that PFR is a strong predictor of voting behaviour, though conservative ideology, low trust in institutions and anti-migrant views may lead people with high PFR to support parties that favour right-wing economic policies. After further work, the team plans to transform its research results into an academic paper.

Next, Ilda Durri presented findings on the EU’s Platform Work Directive (PWD), attempting to answer the question of whether it’s a milestone or a nothingburger; her conclusion was that it’s a “qualified milestone”. She found that the directive is groundbreaking in that it covers all types of platform work and forms of employment. It introduces a rebuttable presumption of employment – an important tool, though not a panacea. It’s also the first time algorithmic management is regulated in the work context. Algorithmic decision-making must become more transparent, with a “human-in-the-loop” approach including the right to an explanation and human review of algorithmic decisions. That and other provisions will require platforms to allocate more human resources. The Directive also strengthens collective labour rights, including by requiring platforms to create channels for workers to communicate with each other and with employee representatives. This presentation was linked to the WeLaR policy report, which covers the four megatrends.

Holger Stichnoth presented a WeLaR report examining the net fiscal contribution of migrants to the German budget in 2018 and showing that the overall budgetary impact of migration was minimal. The study found differences between German citizens, EU migrants, and non-EU migrants. On a per capita basis, the average net contribution was slightly positive for German nationals at €629, significantly higher for EU migrants at over €3,000, and negative for non-EU nationals at €2,600. When scaled to population size, this resulted in a €45 billion surplus from German nationals, a positive contribution of €13 billion from EU nationals, and a €16 billion deficit from non-EU migrants, far lower than the €50 billion figure often claimed by far-right narratives. Moreover, when combining the fiscal contributions of all foreigners in Germany, the result was a very small deficit, amounting to just 0.07% of GDP. These findings clearly indicate that, contrary to common misconceptions, the fiscal impact of migration on the German budget is negligible.

Piotr Lewandowski presented preliminary findings from an ongoing study exploring attitudes of platform workers toward welfare provisions typical for a standard job contract. To understand how they value different job-related benefits, the researchers conducted a discrete choice experiment focused on two provisions: sick pay and paid leave. The preliminary results show that while platform workers are generally willing to forgo some income in exchange for welfare protections, their willingness to pay for sick leave is relatively modest, with a stronger preference shown for paid leave. However, even the value placed on paid leave remains lower than that observed in the general population, reflecting the trade-offs these workers make between flexibility and security. Interestingly, the study also finds that those who turn to platform work out of necessity, rather than by choice, are significantly more willing to pay for both job amenities compared to those who choose platform work for the flexibility it offers.

After the project’s final conference, general assembly and executive board meeting earlier in June, WeLaR is winding down in July and August with one paper remaining to be delivered, as well as a webinar on the foresight report, a final newsletter and one more open virtual expert cafe. The advisory board reported that all deliverables are on track to be completed on time.