On 4 July 2025, the final edition of the WeLaR Virtual Expert Café brought together researchers from across Europe to reflect on how today’s complex crises – ranging from climate change and war to democratic backsliding and de-globalisation – are challenging the foundations of socio-economic research and policy. The online session served as an open forum for discussion, sharing insights, and cross-project learning. 

Ursula Holtgrewe (Center for Social Innovation) opened the session by examining how the global and European research context has shifted since WeLaR began. She argued that today’s “polycrisis” has upended earlier assumptions about change, evidence, and impact. Holtgrewe called on researchers to critically reassess their role and resist the lure of “magical thinking” – the belief that producing sound policy recommendations automatically translates into societal change. Instead, she encouraged a more nuanced, reflective approach that acknowledges institutional inertia, political backlash, and epistemic limitations, while still holding space for vision and responsibility. See the presentation here. 

Holger Stichnoth (Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research – ZEW) shared new findings from a microsimulation study analysing the tax and transfer impacts of Germany’s right-wing populist AfD party. His research revealed that AfD’s policy proposals would primarily benefit high earners, while offering little to low-income groups—despite the party’s strong support among working-class and unemployed voters. Stichnoth highlighted the growing disconnect between voter perceptions and economic policy outcomes, and raised important questions about how political identity and narratives around migration may shape electoral choices more than material self-interest. The presentation is available here. 

Karolien Lenaerts (HIVA – KU Leuven) presented insights from the BRIDGES 5.0 project, which explores the emerging paradigm of Industry 5.0. Drawing on outcomes from a recent multi-stakeholder conference, she underlined the need to involve workers more actively in shaping industrial transitions and to support small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in aligning business priorities with social goals. She also emphasised the importance of translating high-level concepts into actionable guidance and practice. See the presentation here. 

Following the presentations, participants engaged in a lively discussion. Topics included the role of far-right parties in redefining economic narratives, how migration influences political dynamics, and continuing gender equality challenges.  

On 26 June 2025, the WeLaR webinar “Anticipating the future: Foresight approaches for labour markets and welfare in Europe” brought together 25 researchers, policymakers, and foresight experts to explore how scenario-based thinking can guide long-term strategies in European labour markets and welfare systems. The interactive session, attended by participants from across Europe, presented key insights from the WeLaR foresight exercise and highlighted how anticipatory approaches can help shape more resilient, inclusive, and future-ready policies.

Laurène Thil (HIVA – KU Leuven) opened the event with an overview of the WeLaR foresight exercise, which unfolded in four stages: a scenario workshop in Brussels, a Delphi-style survey involving 72 experts, a policy co-creation workshop in Vienna, and a second Delphi round currently underway. The process resulted in four future scenarios for the EU in 2040, presenting different future trajectories, based on varying paces of technological change and levels of climate policy stringency and international coordination. The second survey, running until mid-July, will assess the feasibility and impact of the eight policy recommendations developed during workshops. The final WeLaR foresight report, detailing all scenarios, outcomes, and policy insights, is expected by the end of August. See the presentation here.

Dexter Docherty (OECD Strategic Foresight Unit) shared tools and principles from the OECD’s Strategic Foresight Toolkit, stressing the value of exploring alternative futures and stress-testing policy choices. He outlined how governments can embed foresight in institutions to anticipate disruption and design adaptable strategies. His presentation highlighted the importance of fostering independence, high-level political support, and diverse expertise within foresight ecosystems. See the presentation here.

Bart Los (University of Groningen) presented findings from quantitative research analysing the impact of globalisation, technological change, and migration on consumption. Using input-output modelling and linear programming, the study assessed eight scenario combinations. The results showed that technological change plays the most crucial role in determining consumption. The study feeds into the Horizon 2020 GI-NI project focused on inequality in a globalised economy. See the presentation here.

Rafael Peels (International Labour Organization) contributed a perspective on how trade unions use foresight to adapt to a changing world of work. Drawing on ILO experiences across Africa, Asia, and Eastern Europe, Peels described a cycle of horizon scanning, scenario development, and organisational change. He underscored that foresight should allign with trade union principles by promoting participation, democracy, and long-term vision, and called for greater investment in local capacity building and political buy-in. See the presentation here.

Joanna Hofman (RAND Europe) brought attention to gender equality in foresight. Her analysis of 33 EU foresight evaluations (2020–2022) revealed major gaps in integrating gender and intersectionality. Hofman advocated for applying gender mainstreaming tools, building diverse teams, and addressing challenges such as the gender pension gap and biases in labour markets. She urged participants to see inclusive foresight as a lever for fairness and social justice in future policy. See the presentation here.

On 24 June 2025, the WeLaR team met with its Advisory Board members, Marco Pianta, Andrew Clark, Agnieszka Chłoń-Domińczak, and Christoph T. Weiss.

During the meeting, WeLaR researchers presented key findings from their ongoing work and received feedback and suggestions. The exchange offered a constructive opportunity to reflect on project progress and plan out the final months of the project.

To kick off the meeting, Marko Vladisavljević presented research on Europeans’ preferences for redistribution and demand for redistributive policies. His team sought to link these views to voting behaviour and the positions of European political parties, an area that remains under-investigated. Using data from 31 countries from 2002-23, the researchers attempted to examine the preference for redistribution (PFR) in the context of inequality and personal values. In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis and the fiscal austerity it inspired, there was an increase in PFR; the response to Covid, which featured strong redistribution in many countries, was followed by a decrease. The study found that PFR is a strong predictor of voting behaviour, though conservative ideology, low trust in institutions and anti-migrant views may lead people with high PFR to support parties that favour right-wing economic policies. After further work, the team plans to transform its research results into an academic paper.

Next, Ilda Durri presented findings on the EU’s Platform Work Directive (PWD), attempting to answer the question of whether it’s a milestone or a nothingburger; her conclusion was that it’s a “qualified milestone”. She found that the directive is groundbreaking in that it covers all types of platform work and forms of employment. It introduces a rebuttable presumption of employment – an important tool, though not a panacea. It’s also the first time algorithmic management is regulated in the work context. Algorithmic decision-making must become more transparent, with a “human-in-the-loop” approach including the right to an explanation and human review of algorithmic decisions. That and other provisions will require platforms to allocate more human resources. The Directive also strengthens collective labour rights, including by requiring platforms to create channels for workers to communicate with each other and with employee representatives. This presentation was linked to the WeLaR policy report, which covers the four megatrends.

Holger Stichnoth presented a WeLaR report examining the net fiscal contribution of migrants to the German budget in 2018 and showing that the overall budgetary impact of migration was minimal. The study found differences between German citizens, EU migrants, and non-EU migrants. On a per capita basis, the average net contribution was slightly positive for German nationals at €629, significantly higher for EU migrants at over €3,000, and negative for non-EU nationals at €2,600. When scaled to population size, this resulted in a €45 billion surplus from German nationals, a positive contribution of €13 billion from EU nationals, and a €16 billion deficit from non-EU migrants, far lower than the €50 billion figure often claimed by far-right narratives. Moreover, when combining the fiscal contributions of all foreigners in Germany, the result was a very small deficit, amounting to just 0.07% of GDP. These findings clearly indicate that, contrary to common misconceptions, the fiscal impact of migration on the German budget is negligible.

Piotr Lewandowski presented preliminary findings from an ongoing study exploring attitudes of platform workers toward welfare provisions typical for a standard job contract. To understand how they value different job-related benefits, the researchers conducted a discrete choice experiment focused on two provisions: sick pay and paid leave. The preliminary results show that while platform workers are generally willing to forgo some income in exchange for welfare protections, their willingness to pay for sick leave is relatively modest, with a stronger preference shown for paid leave. However, even the value placed on paid leave remains lower than that observed in the general population, reflecting the trade-offs these workers make between flexibility and security. Interestingly, the study also finds that those who turn to platform work out of necessity, rather than by choice, are significantly more willing to pay for both job amenities compared to those who choose platform work for flexibility it offers.

After the project’s final conference, general assembly and executive board meeting earlier in June, WeLaR is winding down in July and August with one paper remaining to be delivered, as well as a webinar on the foresight report, a final newsletter and one more open virtual expert cafe. The advisory board reported that all deliverables are on track to be completed on time.

The WeLaR webinar “Social Innovations in/with/for the Welfare State in Rural Areas”, hosted in collaboration with the European School of Social Innovation (ESSI), brought together 25 researchers from across Europe. The 3 June 2025 event showcased WeLaR research case studies on social innovations and explored how these initiatives are reshaping welfare systems and addressing rural challenges, especially for marginalised groups.

Ursula Holtgrewe (ZSI) opened the webinar with insights from WeLaR research. She introduced case studies showing how initiatives support marginalised groups such as people with disabilities, migrant care workers and rural women. The presentation highlighted both opportunities and barriers for social innovations, including institutional support, funding limitations and political constraints. Overall, she emphasised that while social innovations vary in ambition, they often share practical strategies and require strong connections to public institutions to create lasting impact. The presentation is available here.

Laurène Thil (HIVA/KU Leuven) shared findings from a WeLaR case study on care farms in Belgium, a social innovation supporting individuals experiencing burnout. Through nature-based activities like gardening, animal care, and selling produce, participants engage in meaningful work that supports mental health recovery and reintegration into the labour market. The model connects farmers, healthcare providers, and researchers to reduce the risk of disability and relieve pressure on the healthcare system. Despite challenges in scaling and regional disparities, Thil emphasised care farming’s strong potential for broader adoption.The presentation is available here. 

Sonja Avlijaš (University of Belgrade) explored the WeLaR case study of the Hobotnica (Octopus) project, a grassroots initiative helping women in rural Serbia deal with the heavy burden of unpaid care work. Created by the women’s group ŽUKO during the COVID-19 pandemic, the project offered eight flexible services, such as mental health support, legal help, digital training, and transport, to reduce isolation and support women’s wellbeing. The project focused on inclusion, adaptability, and listening to the real needs of women, offering new opportunities and challenging the limits of Serbia’s strict welfare system. While it sparked national debate and inspired some local action, long-term support is still lacking due to funding and legal barriers. See the presentation here.

Stella Wolter and Ursula Holtgrewe presented findings from a WeLaR study on live-in care in Austria, focusing on initiatives to address the challenges faced by mostly migrant women working under precarious self-employment. Known as “24-hour care,” this model is especially common in rural and peri-urban areas with ageing populations and limited public services, and leaves workers isolated, overworked and underprotected. The presentation highlighted a support ecosystem of initiatives, volunteers, peer groups, and activist networks offering legal aid, information, and skill-building. Despite grassroots collaboration and visibility, political and structural barriers limit deeper reforms in the care regime and leave migrant workers in precarious positions. The presentation is available here.

The event concluded with reflections from Franziska Görmar (Leibniz-Institut für Länderkunde, Project DICES), followed by a Q&A session and group discussion.

The second WeLaR foresight workshop brought together policymakers, researchers, and social partners to discuss policy responses to the potential negative impacts of technological change, climate policies, and globalisation on European labour markets and welfare systems.

Held in Vienna on 18 March 2025, the workshop built on the scenarios developed in the first workshop and formulated policy recommendations for EU labour market and welfare state reforms. The four scenarios present different future trajectories, based on varying paces of technological change and levels of climate policy stringency and international coordination.

The workshop opened with a policy panel facilitated by Dalila Ghailani and Sebastiano Sabato (OSE). Panelists representing EU and national institutions, social partners and NGOs shared their views on the most promising courses of action to promote sustainable and inclusive growth and on initiatives that the EU could take to support Member States. The discussion highlighted matters including the importance of education and training and the need to consider access to childcare and elder care as a cross-cutting issue.

The policy panel was followed by a presentation from Mikkel Barslund and Laurène Thil (HIVA – KU Leuven) who discussed findings from the first WeLaR Delphi survey. The survey gathered expert assessments on the likelihood of various scenarios, their labour market and welfare state implications, and the demographic groups most at risk.

Experts indicated that the most plausible scenario (85.5%) is the one characterised by rapid but uneven technological growth, weak climate policies, and declining global cooperation. This scenario is expected to lead to job polarisation, rising income inequality, strained welfare systems, and widening regional disparities.

The remaining three scenarios assumed:

A.: A world shaped by rapid technological progress and strict climate policies, supported by strong global cooperation. This environment fosters innovation but faces challenges such as tensions, mismatches, and uneven progress.

B.: A world where technological innovation flourishes locally, yet limited climate action and reduced global connectivity create obstacles to achieving broader sustainability goals and

C.: A world where strict climate rules and global cooperation face challenges from slow technological progress.

Ursula Holtgrewe (ZSI) and Michaela Bruckmayer (ZSI) set the stage for the afternoon, when participants worked in groups to further develop policy recommendations and explore policy synergies for each scenario, which will be tested for their plausibility and potential to achieve their goals in a second round of the Delphi survey.

The WeLaR webinar “In-Work Poverty in Europe” brought together 37 participants to investigate the key drivers of poverty among working Europeans and explore the role of social, fiscal and labour market policies in addressing the issue.

Hosted by Università degli Studi di Perugia on 21 February 2025, the event opened with a welcome and introduction by Cristiano Perugini (UNIPG) and featured five presentations, followed by a lively discussion and exchange of ideas.

Anne-Catherine Guio (LISER) presented preliminary findings on what drives in-work poverty and how European workers move in and out of it. Her research shows that countries with similar in-work poverty rates may experience different types of transitions. People with low education, those in low work-intensity households, and individuals facing major life changes are at a higher risk of falling into poverty.

Anna-Magdalena Schwarz (Central European University) examined the gendered nature of in-work poverty in Europe, revealing that traditional poverty indicators often fail to capture women’s financial vulnerability. While household income dynamics primarily shape men’s in-work poverty, women are more likely to experience individual poverty, which is often masked by household-level assessments.

Daria Popova (ISER, University of Essex) showed that the model of activating individuals into employment fails to reflect women’s reality – part-time work, unpaid care, and the gender pay gap. Her analysis finds that only 1 in 3 women fit this model. Inactive and unemployed women are especially vulnerable to poverty, and even those with the same jobs as men face higher risks due to the gender pay gap. Taxes and social insurance disproportionately impact women in atypical jobs, increasing their poverty risk. Social benefits provide some support but are often insufficient, especially for unemployed, inactive, and self-employed women.

Fabrizio Pompei (UNIPG) presented findings from the WeLaR paper on in-work poverty in Europe and the impact of labour market and social policy reforms. He argued that family policies should be prioritised to tackle in-work poverty, with the strongest effects linked to reforms of paternity leave and non-gender-specific leave policies.

Ive Marx (University of Antwerpen) emphasised that in-work poverty is primarily a household work intensity issue, meaning solutions should focus on increasing overall household employment. While raising minimum wages as high as the labour market can sustain without adverse employment effects is important, it must be complemented by other measures. Keeping taxes and social security contributions low can help ease financial strain on low-income workers, while (quasi-)universal child benefits provide a crucial layer of income support for both working and non-working families.

Migration has become a prominent political topic, often discussed for its potential fiscal impact but rarely supported by robust data. At the recent WeLaR webinar, we had the opportunity to explore the latest studies on how immigration affects public finances.

The webinar, organised by WeLaR partner ZEW on December 9, 2024, brought together 25 participants who explored various fiscal aspects of migration, including both direct and indirect contributions to state budgets, as well as differences between migrant groups and natives, such as age, education level, and country of origin.

Giacomo Boffi (Leiden University) presented a study he conducted with Eduard Suari-Andreu and Olaf van Vliet as part of the TransEuroWorkS project, which examines trends in the net fiscal positions (NFPs) of natives, intra-EU migrants, and extra-EU migrants from 2007 to 2018. The study found that all three groups had negative NFPs, but migrants showed a better recovery post-crisis compared to natives. Intra-EU migrants consistently made positive contributions to NFPs, while the contributions of extra-EU migrants were more mixed. Age (particularly prime working age) and education were key factors driving NFP differences. However, education had a minimal impact on extra-EU migrants, most probably due to challenges in recognising their qualifications.

Michael Christl (Joint Research Centre – EC and Universidad Loyola Andalucía) presented a study he co-authored with Hend Sallam, “Do Migrants Pay Their Way? A Net Fiscal Analysis for Germany.” The study aimed to determine whether migrants in Germany contribute positively or negatively to public finances, considering direct and indirect taxes as well as in-kind benefits like health and education. The authors were also interested in differences between natives, first-generation, and second-generation migrants. They found that migrants generally have a favourable net fiscal impact, with second-generation migrants contributing more positively than first-generation migrants, who, in turn, contribute more than natives. Demographic characteristics, especially age structure, play a significant role in fiscal contributions, with natives and second-generation migrants contributing more than first-generation migrants when individual characteristics are taken into account.

Holger Stichnoth (ZEW) presented the findings of the WeLaR paper, “The Fiscal Contribution of Immigrants in Germany”, co-authored with Alexandre Gnaedinger and Mats Le Floch. The study examines NFC of different migrant groups and natives to public finances in Germany in 2018. The authors found that, in 2018, the average NFC was positive for Germans and EU nationals, but negative for non-EU nationals. While the total NFC from all migrants (in billions of euros) is small relative to the overall budget and GDP, the study also found that NFC increases with education levels.

Dominik Sachs (University of St. Gallen) presented a paper co-authored with Mark Colas that investigates whether low-skilled immigrants are a fiscal burden on the U.S. budget, as is widely believed. The study examined the indirect fiscal effects, specifically how low-skilled immigration impacts native wages and labour supply. They found that the indirect fiscal benefits of low-skilled immigration are significant and positive, ranging from $770 to $2,100 annually per immigrant. These indirect benefits may outweigh the previously documented negative direct fiscal effects, challenging the common perception of low-skilled immigration as a fiscal burden.

Researchers, policymakers, and WeLaR stakeholders met in Brussels last week to examine how technological progress and climate policies might evolve and their implications for European labour markets and welfare systems.

At the foresight workshop “Exploring the long-term impacts of megatrends on European labour markets and welfare systems, organised by WeLaR partners HIVA KU Leuven, OSE and ZSI on 28 November, 2024 in Brussels, participants discussed three scenarios, using a matrix framed around two key uncertainties: technological progress (fast vs. slow) and climate policy stringency (mild vs. strict).

“Foresight exercises like this are invaluable tools. They open our perspectives, encourage mental plasticity, and challenge us to think beyond linear trajectories,” wrote Manuel Paolillo, Director General of Policy Coordination and International Relations, Belgian Ministry of Social Security, in a LinkedIn post. “As I’ve written previously (The Art of Foresight – Like a Jedi Knight), scenario planning allows us to prepare for multiple possible futures. It equips us with the adaptability needed to address uncertainties and shape resilient strategies, going beyond predictive analysis.”

We explored three potential future scenarios:

Scenario 1: A world shaped by rapid technological progress and strict climate policies, supported by strong global cooperation. This environment fosters innovation but faces challenges such as tensions, mismatches, and uneven progress.

Scenario 2: A world where technological innovation flourishes locally, yet limited climate action and reduced global connectivity create obstacles to achieving broader sustainability goals.

Scenario 3: A world marked by slow technological growth, mild climate policies, and localised economies, resulting in stagnation and minimal overall progress.

These scenarios highlight diverse challenges and opportunities, providing a valuable framework to anticipate future trajectories and develop adaptive strategies.

Our next steps include a Delphi survey to validate and refine the scenarios and a second workshop, planned for March 18 2025 in Vienna, hosted by ZSI, where the survey results will be discussed to develop policy recommendations for adapting welfare systems to promote resilience and inclusive growth.

More than 20 researchers joined a WeLaR webinar on 28 November 2024 to discuss recent studies examining the connections between demographics, education, and technological innovation in driving economic progress.

“The Interplay of Demographics, Education, and Technology in Shaping Economic Progress” was organised by WeLaR partner IBS – Institute for Structural Research.

In the first presentation, Cäcilia Lipowski (ifo Institute – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research) examined how shortages of young workers hinder firms’ technology investments. She used a natural experiment from a 2001 German education reform that temporarily reduced the labour supply of trainees. Her findings reveal that young workers are critical for adopting new technologies, due to their adaptability and lower training costs, with firms experiencing declines in tech investment when such workers are scarce. While a reduced supply of young labour market entrants may not always decrease tech adoption, it will always increase its costs. See the presentation here.

Next, Guido Neidhöfer (Turkish-German University) shared a database of indices tracking intergenerational mobility across Europe, developed in collaboration with Sarah McNamara (ZEW) and Patrick Lehnert (University of Zurich) to provide insights into regional variations and historical trends. Their study shows that higher intergenerational educational mobility is strongly linked to increased regional innovation. Their research implies that policies enhancing equality of opportunity can drive long-term efficiencies and innovation without a trade-off between equity and economic growth. The presentation is available here.

In the third presentation, Julian Vedeler Johnsen (Universitetet i Bergen) presented findings from a project conducted with Patrick Bennett (University of Liverpool) on the impact that automation and immigration have on non-college-educated workers in Norway. Their results show that automation disproportionately impacts non-college-educated workers, particularly in manufacturing and construction, with spillover effects leading to declines in construction jobs. These impacts are amplified when combined with immigration shocks, creating downward pressure on wages and pushing workers into lower-quality jobs or lower-paid occupations. See the presentation here.

The webinar concluded with a presentation by Piotr Lewandowski (IBS), who discussed his ongoing research with Karol Madoń on the influence of automation on teenagers’ career choices in Norway. Preliminary findings suggest that exposure to robots reduces the likelihood of teen boys selecting vocational tracks prone to automation, with the effect being more pronounced among those whose fathers work in sectors heavily impacted by robots.